EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – The Euro Touches The Three-Week Low Vicinity Ahead Of ECB Chief Praet’s Speech

EUR/USD dropped into the three-week low vicinity reaching 1.1195 level during the Asian session. Below expected economic data reports slumped the pair yesterday which extended until today morning session. However, EUR/USD still managed to bounce back recovering previous losses, after hitting the lowest support level of 1.1195 for last three weeks.

Any significant global cue can have a massive impact on the pair making it tumble more during the day. The US Index that computes the greenback against the six major currencies benefitted from the EUR/USD fall in the early hours. The index was 40 pips up during the same period.

Release of March CPI by SFSO

At the time of writing this article (07:40 GMT), the pair was trading at 1.1199 level. A few moments ago, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office issued the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), both MoM and YoY, for Switzerland. Both the CPIs were more than the market expectation.

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Peter Praet spoke at the 6th international conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. His speech comments have not yet made public over the internet. However, the EUR/USD was seen rising during this time frame.

In his last speech, he had specified a stable outlook for the Eurozone. He also added that the monetary policy works in full independence, not in isolation. So he says that to see good results (upliftment in the long-term rates) out of the monetary policy measures taken, a contribution from other policy areas is also significant.

The US Census Bureau will release the February Nondefense Capital Goods excluding the Aircraft at around 12:30 GMT. The Census Bureau is with the opinion that the defense and aircraft durable products are sensitive towards the US economy as it cost huge investments. The market expects the numbers to come around 0.0 percent as compared to the previous 0.8 percent.

Technical Analysis

The Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the significant days was above the EUR/USD revealing a bearish stance on the pair’s future movement. The pair can easily break the resistance level of 1.1214 with a little upshot. EUR/USD seems to hover more along the lower portion of the Bollinger Band (BB) which is below the 20 Period SMA center line. The pair had broken the lower BB part quite a few times showing some sell alerts. The Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) showed some trading signals during the Asian session.