EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Consolidate

Christopher Lewis
Published: Nov 16, 2023, 14:05 UTC

The euro consolidated a bit during the session on Thursday, as we continue to sort out whether or not the recent push higher can stick.

Euros, FX Empire

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EUR/USD Forecast Video for 17.11.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro was a bit noisy during the trading session on Thursday, as we have seen a lot of confusion. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see indecision, as we had recently shot straight up in the air after the inflation numbers cooled off in the United States, but at this point you have to start to ask questions about whether or not the market is going to have to price in the idea of recession. After all, the European Union is very likely heading into a recession currently, and if the United States does the same thing, then it brings in a huge need for US dollars as a safety trade.

Underneath, the 200-Day EMA sits right around the 1.0750 level, and I think that’s your “floor in the market” currently. That being said, if we were to break down below the candlestick in the last couple of days, I think we could make a move down to that level where we would have a bigger fight on our hands. On the other hand, if we break above the 1.09 level on a daily close, then the market is likely to go looking to the 1.10 level, and perhaps even higher than that as it could signal a resumption of the overall trend change.

Obviously, we have seen a lot of upward momentum after those inflation numbers in the United States, but the question now is whether or not there is going to be a lot of risk appetite? Because of this, the US dollar isn’t quite dead yet, but it’s likely going to be a situation where we will make a bigger decision in the next couple of days. Granted, the bond yields will have a lot to say about where we go next, therefore it’s likely that the same correlation will continue to be a major driver. As yields in the United States rise, that makes the US dollar more attractive, and of course vice versa. Bonds in the European Union are starting to price in recession, which has put a little bit of the ceiling in this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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