EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to See a Lot of Noisy Behavior

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

You can see that the euro is moving back and forward during the course of the trading session as we continue to see noise from the jobs number. That being said, it is a scenario where a lot of people will continue to look at this through the prism of the 1.10 level being a major resistance barrier and the 1.07 level being the major support level in the longer term chart.

That being said, we are close to the top here and a little bit of a pullback would not surprise me. Keep in mind that the non-farm payroll announcement typically causes a lot of false noise and the overall differential between the two central banks is essentially what people will pay the most attention to. If we can break above the 1.10 level, though, that would be a very bullish sign and it could send this market looking to the 1.1150 level, while underneath the 50 day EMA offer support near the 1.0850 level and then, of course, we have the 200 day EMA.

I think it’s very likely that this pair ends up being somewhat rangebound for most of the year. And with that being the case, you have a scenario where we are getting a little overstretched. I don’t know if I would short this market quite yet, but I certainly wouldn’t buy it sitting just below a significant amount of selling pressure.

The Federal Reserve has already stated quite openly that they are likely to cut rates later this year, while the ECB is likely to do the same due to the German recession, but they haven’t openly said that yet. That will probably be answered at the next ECB meeting. Whit that being said, I think this is a pair that over the course of the year is going to be somewhat rangebound and we are getting close to the top of that range.

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