EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Looks to The Upside

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 27.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The euro rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see upward pressure in general. Ultimately, the market will try to return to the 1.10 level, perhaps even the 1.11 level. Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA indicator that many people pay close attention to, and it is worth noting that the market has bounced rather hard from that level. All things being equal, this is a situation where the market is likely to continue to see volatility, as its looking at the central banks of both currencies and recognizing that they are both tight. However, most traders believe the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate hiking cycle, while the ECB may have more ahead.

That being said, there are a lot of concerns in the European Union, not the least of which is that Germany has entered a technical recession, so sooner or later, we’ve got to look at the possibility of the Europeans having to loosen monetary policy if the economic engine of the EU is going to struggle. All things being equal, the market is likely to see concerns played out against the currency. Furthermore, we do have a lot of negativity around the world and a potential global slowdown that could have money flowing back toward the US dollar.

Ultimately, I think we are more or less in an area of consolidation with “a bit of an upward tilt” at the moment. Again, the 50-Day EMA underneath will be an important indicator, and most certainly, the 200-Day EMA will also be. All things being equal, I think we will stay between the 200-Day EMA and the 1.11 level over the next several months. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of chopping back and forth, so I would not get overly attached to a trade, and I certainly would not put on a huge one at the moment as it looks like we have nothing short of a confused market at the moment. With this, you will have to be nimble, and almost certainly have to trade from short-term charts.

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