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EUR/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Buyers May Try to Defend Last Year’s Close at 1.2001

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Apr 29, 2018, 20:54 UTC

Based on last week’s close at 1.2129, the direction of the EUR/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.2136.

EUR/USD

Dovish talk from the European Central Bank and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields helped drive the Euro lower last week. Rising interest rates helped widen the spread between U.S. Government Bonds and German Bunds, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.

The EUR/USD settled the week at 1.2129, down 0.0157 or -1.28%.

 EURUSD
Weekly EUR/USD

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower.

The major retracement zone is 1.2166 to 1.2597. Closing below this zone confirmed the shift in momentum to the downside.

The EUR/USD is currently in a position to test a number of retracement levels. Trader reaction to these levels will determine the near-term direction of the market.

The intermediate range is 1.1717 to 1.2555. Its retracement zone is 1.2136 to 1.2037.

The main range is 1.1553 to 1.2555. Its retracement zone is 1.2054 to 1.1936.

The combination of this zone creates price clusters at 1.2166 to 1.2136 and 1.2054 to 1.2037. These are the most important areas to watch this week.

Another target is the 2017 close at 1.2001. Sentiment could turn dramatically if the EUR/USD turns lower for the year.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 1.2129, the direction of the EUR/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.2136.

A sustained move under 1.2136 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a plunged into 1.2054 then 1.2037. This is followed closely by the 2017 close at 1.2001.

Taking out 1.2001 will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next target 1.1936. This level is a trigger point for a possible acceleration into the next main bottom at 1.1717.

Overtaking 1.2136 will signal the return of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of 1.2166. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Look for the rally to pick up speed over this level.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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