EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Forecasts – Dollar Stubborn Early Thursday

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro continues to hang around the 50-day EMA during the early hours here on Thursday which, honestly, I wouldn’t make too much of it because, of course, we have the jobs number coming out on Friday, and therefore it’s probably a pretty high bar to get people to really start moving the currency markets ahead of that announcement.

That being said, we are still very much in the same consolidation area between 1.18 on the top and 1.14 on the bottom. We are closer to the top than the bottom, so it does make sense that we would pull back a bit, but ultimately, I think a lot of this is going to come down to the jobs report and what it may or may not do to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound, of course, has drifted a little bit lower. We are in an area of consolidation. I don’t think that changes today. You could, in theory, see a little bit of a bounce when we get closer to 1.34, but really, I think this is the domain of short-term traders more than anything else, with 1.35 being a bit of a magnet for price.

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates as well, but it is expected to do so in a much slower and gradual manner than the market once thought, hence the British pound’s strength over the last couple of months. I think this is a currency that, relatively speaking, at least will fare better than many others against the greenback.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The euro has climbed slightly against the British pound as we continue our bounce from the 200-day EMA, but I will direct you to my analysis from a couple of days ago. I think we’re going to start drifting towards the 0.8720 area and then maybe see some exhaustion that we can start shorting again.

While the Bank of England is expected to cut rates, it’s doing so at a much slower pace, and this, of course, is in comparison to the ECB, which is basically on hold, so we already know that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the pound for some time. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we fall apart. I just think that you’re going to continue to see more of a rally and then a fade type of situation going forward.

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