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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Blend of PMI, CPI, and Consumer Sentiment in Play

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Mar 1, 2024, 07:45 UTC

Key Points:

  • US economic indicators set the stage with Core PCE Price Index, unemployment claims, and Chicago PMI.
  • Pending Home Sales decline signals potential shifts in consumer behavior and housing market dynamics.
  • Key upcoming events include ISM Manufacturing PMI, UoM Consumer Sentiment, and FOMC members' speeches.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Blend of PMI, CPI, and Consumer Sentiment in Play

In this article:

The backdrop is forex market is set by a series of US economic figures: a Core PCE Price Index aligning with expectations at 0.4%, unemployment claims exceeding forecasts at 215K against an anticipated 209K, and a Chicago PMI that fell short of predictions at 44.0, against a forecasted 48.1.

Adding complexity, Pending Home Sales saw an unexpected decline of 4.9%, signaling potential shifts in consumer behavior and housing market dynamics.

Events Ahead:

The near future holds key data releases and central bank communications that could sway market sentiment:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated at 49.5, hinting at manufacturing sector trends.
  • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment stands at a forecast of 79.6, offering insights into consumer confidence.
  • FOMC Members’ Speeches, including Bostic, Daly, and Kugler, will provide valuable perspectives on monetary policy outlooks.

In the Eurozone, attention shifts to Manufacturing PMIs, with German Final Manufacturing PMI at a crucial 42.3, and Core CPI Flash Estimate year-over-year expected at 2.9%, potentially indicating inflation pressures.

The GBP outlook will also be influenced by MPC Member Pill’s commentary, providing clues on the Bank of England’s stance.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is currently trading at 104.101, marking a slight decline of 0.03% in the past 24 hours. Today’s analysis pinpoints a critical pivot point at $104.182, delineating key price levels for potential market movements.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $104.440, $104.685, and $104.975, while support positions are notably situated at $103.667, $103.431, and $103.109.

Notably, the convergence of the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $103.988 and $103.810 respectively, underscores a notable technical aspect.

Given this analysis, the overall trend leans towards bearish territory beneath the pivotal level of $104.182, suggesting a cautious stance for traders navigating the Dollar Index landscape.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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