EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $103 – Will It Stay Bearish Below 50 EMA?

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Aug 9, 2024, 07:30 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 233K, boosting the Dollar Index slightly to $103.180.
EUR/USD remains bullish above $1.09211, eyeing resistance at $1.09550 amid steady CPI data.
GBP/USD gains 0.07%, with key resistance at $1.27729, supported by strong technical levels.

In this article:

EUR/USD

+0.77%

GBP/USD

+0.79%

Market Overview

On August 8, the U.S. saw mixed economic data that had a notable impact on major currency pairs. Unemployment claims came in at 233K, better than the forecasted 241K, indicating a stronger labor market.

However, this was offset by stagnant final wholesale inventories, which held steady at 0.2%, and a lower-than-expected natural gas storage figure of 21B, compared to the forecast of 22B.

The 30-year bond auction yielded 4.31%, slightly below previous levels, reflecting some uncertainty in long-term U.S. economic outlooks. These events contributed to minor fluctuations in the Dollar Index, which hovered around 103.180, down 0.03%.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to August 9, the German Final CPI is expected to remain steady at 0.3% m/m, which could provide some support for the euro if the forecast holds. Additionally, the Italian Trade Balance is forecasted at €5.55B, down from €6.43B previously, which might weigh on the euro.

These factors, along with the Dollar Index’s position near key technical levels, will likely dictate short-term movements in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $103.180, down 0.03% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows the index below the pivot point at $103.298, suggesting a bearish outlook. Immediate resistance is at $103.568, with further resistance at $103.960 and $104.450.

On the downside, support is found at $103.034, followed by $102.708 and $102.163. The 50-day EMA at $103.448 acts as a critical level, while the 200-day EMA at $104.228 reinforces the longer-term resistance.

A break above $103.298 could shift momentum to the upside, while remaining below this level may sustain the bearish trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.09223, up 0.04% for the day. The 4-hour chart shows the pair holding above the pivot point at $1.09211, indicating potential bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is at $1.09550, with further resistance levels at $1.10094 and $1.10547.

On the downside, support is found at $1.08925, followed by $1.08647 and $1.08267. The 50-day EMA at $1.08960 supports the bullish outlook, while the 200-day EMA at $1.08514 provides additional support.

A break below $1.08925 could trigger a sharp selling trend, reversing the current bullish bias.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.27584, up 0.07% on the day. The 4-hour chart shows the pair above the pivot point at $1.27246, indicating potential bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is at $1.27729, followed by $1.28071 and $1.28413.

On the downside, support is located at $1.26778, with further levels at $1.26465 and $1.26161. The 50-day EMA at $1.27647 is a key level to watch; a move above could sustain the upward trend, while the 200-day EMA at $1.27992 presents a significant barrier.

A break below $1.27246 could trigger a sharp selling trend, reversing the bullish outlook.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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