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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY at $103 – Will It Stay Bearish Below 50 EMA?
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Key Points:
- U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 233K, boosting the Dollar Index slightly to $103.180.
- EUR/USD remains bullish above $1.09211, eyeing resistance at $1.09550 amid steady CPI data.
- GBP/USD gains 0.07%, with key resistance at $1.27729, supported by strong technical levels.
In this article:
On August 8, the U.S. saw mixed economic data that had a notable impact on major currency pairs. Unemployment claims came in at 233K, better than the forecasted 241K, indicating a stronger labor market.
However, this was offset by stagnant final wholesale inventories, which held steady at 0.2%, and a lower-than-expected natural gas storage figure of 21B, compared to the forecast of 22B.
The 30-year bond auction yielded 4.31%, slightly below previous levels, reflecting some uncertainty in long-term U.S. economic outlooks. These events contributed to minor fluctuations in the Dollar Index, which hovered around 103.180, down 0.03%.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead to August 9, the German Final CPI is expected to remain steady at 0.3% m/m, which could provide some support for the euro if the forecast holds. Additionally, the Italian Trade Balance is forecasted at €5.55B, down from €6.43B previously, which might weigh on the euro.
These factors, along with the Dollar Index’s position near key technical levels, will likely dictate short-term movements in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
A break above $103.298 could shift momentum to the upside, while remaining below this level may sustain the bearish trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at $1.09223, up 0.04% for the day. The 4-hour chart shows the pair holding above the pivot point at $1.09211, indicating potential bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is at $1.09550, with further resistance levels at $1.10094 and $1.10547.
On the downside, support is found at $1.08925, followed by $1.08647 and $1.08267. The 50-day EMA at $1.08960 supports the bullish outlook, while the 200-day EMA at $1.08514 provides additional support.
A break below $1.08925 could trigger a sharp selling trend, reversing the current bullish bias.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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