EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Steady; Lagarde Speaks, PMIs Ahead

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Published: Apr 22, 2024, 07:53 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

ECB President Lagarde's speech expected to impact EUR/USD with current forecasts.
UK CBI Industrial Outlook could signal shifts in GBP/USD, projected improvement to -15.
U.S. Advance GDP and PMI to influence DXY, expected GDP at 2.5% Q/Q.

Market Overview

Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet for both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, with no major releases scheduled that could directly impact their movements.

Events Ahead

In the Eurozone, significant attention will be on the Consumer Confidence Index, anticipated to register a minor improvement to -14 from the previous -15. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s upcoming speech is poised to draw considerable interest as market participants seek guidance on the European Central Bank’s response to ongoing economic challenges.

In the UK, insights into the manufacturing sector’s health will be provided by the CBI Industrial Order Expectations, which are expected to improve slightly to -15 from -18.

The events from US include the Manufacturing and Services PMI, the Advance GDP for the first quarter, projected at 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment, expected to remain nearly stable at 77.8. These indicators will offer vital clues on the broader economic landscape, potentially impacting forex markets.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

Today’s analysis of the Dollar Index shows stability with a minor adjustment, priced at 106.113. The index hovers just above its pivot point at $105.93, suggesting a possible resistance near the $106.54 mark. Further resistance is seen at $107.10 and $107.61, indicating potential upward barriers.

Conversely, support levels are found at $105.54, followed by $105.22 and $104.90, which could act as cushions if the index dips.

Technical indicators, including the 50 EMA at $105.78 and the 200 EMA at $104.75, suggest a foundational support level that bolsters the index’s stance above its pivot. The market outlook is bullish above $105.93, yet a breach below this threshold might prompt a sharp sell-off.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair trades slightly lower today at 1.06549, marking a decrease of 0.03%. Positioned just below its pivot point of $1.0664, the setup suggests a cautious market. Resistance levels are observed at $1.0704, $1.0735, and $1.0793, while support can be found at $1.0603, followed by stronger floors at $1.0548 and $1.0496.

The 50-Day EMA at $1.0682 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.0772, both above the current price, underscore a bearish trend. A break above $1.0664 could pivot to a more bullish outlook, indicating crucial junctures for potential shifts in market dynamics.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Today, the GBP/USD pair is trading lower at 1.23580, reflecting a decline of 0.6%. The currency pair is currently below its pivot point of $1.2396, signaling bearish pressure. It faces immediate resistance levels at $1.2487, $1.2579, and $1.2705. On the downside, support can be found at $1.2308, with further support at $1.2225 and $1.2149.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages at $1.2472 and $1.2585 respectively, both above the current price, reinforce the bearish sentiment. A movement above $1.2396 might shift the market’s bias towards bullish, indicating a potential reversal in the current trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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