EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Steady; Lagarde Speaks, PMIs Ahead

Arslan Ali
Published: Apr 22, 2024, 07:53 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • ECB President Lagarde's speech expected to impact EUR/USD with current forecasts.
  • UK CBI Industrial Outlook could signal shifts in GBP/USD, projected improvement to -15.
  • U.S. Advance GDP and PMI to influence DXY, expected GDP at 2.5% Q/Q.
US Dollar Index and FOMC

In this article:

Market Overview

Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet for both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, with no major releases scheduled that could directly impact their movements.

Events Ahead

In the Eurozone, significant attention will be on the Consumer Confidence Index, anticipated to register a minor improvement to -14 from the previous -15. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s upcoming speech is poised to draw considerable interest as market participants seek guidance on the European Central Bank’s response to ongoing economic challenges.

In the UK, insights into the manufacturing sector’s health will be provided by the CBI Industrial Order Expectations, which are expected to improve slightly to -15 from -18.

The events from US include the Manufacturing and Services PMI, the Advance GDP for the first quarter, projected at 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment, expected to remain nearly stable at 77.8. These indicators will offer vital clues on the broader economic landscape, potentially impacting forex markets.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

Today’s analysis of the Dollar Index shows stability with a minor adjustment, priced at 106.113. The index hovers just above its pivot point at $105.93, suggesting a possible resistance near the $106.54 mark. Further resistance is seen at $107.10 and $107.61, indicating potential upward barriers.

Conversely, support levels are found at $105.54, followed by $105.22 and $104.90, which could act as cushions if the index dips.

Technical indicators, including the 50 EMA at $105.78 and the 200 EMA at $104.75, suggest a foundational support level that bolsters the index’s stance above its pivot. The market outlook is bullish above $105.93, yet a breach below this threshold might prompt a sharp sell-off.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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