EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: ECB and U.S. GDP to Drive Markets

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Updated: Apr 25, 2024, 07:09 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

ECB Economic Bulletin and Bundesbank comments could significantly influence the EUR/USD's short-term movements.
Key U.S. data, including Advance GDP and Unemployment Claims, set to impact USD's strength and currency pairs.
GBP/USD's direction hinges on UK consumer confidence data and U.S. economic indicators affecting market dynamics.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: ECB and U.S. GDP to Drive Markets

Market Overview

For the EUR/USD, attention turns to the European Central Bank’s Economic Bulletin and remarks from the German Bundesbank President, which could offer deeper insights into the monetary policy outlook amid Europe’s current economic conditions.

Notably, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index recently reported at -24.2, showing a slight improvement over the previous -25.9, suggesting a cautious stabilization in consumer sentiment within Europe’s largest economy.

Events Ahead

Looking forward, the EUR/USD pair will focus on the European Central Bank’s Economic Bulletin and remarks from the German Bundesbank President, which could influence the Euro’s strength against the Dollar.

Key events that could impact the GBP/USD include the UK’s CBI Realized Sales and GfK Consumer Confidence, which remain crucial for gauging the strength of the consumer sector in the UK economy.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the USD’s strength will likely be influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data, including Advance GDP, which is expected to show a decrease to 2.5% from 3.4%. Unemployment Claims are projected to remain steady around 214K.

Further data on the Advance GDP Price Index and U.S. Goods Trade Balance will provide additional insights into the U.S. economic conditions, potentially affecting the currency pairs.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is trading slightly lower today at 105.751, down by 0.05%. Currently, the index is positioned above its pivot point at 105.521, indicating a potential for continued bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance levels are found at 106.111, 106.536, and 107.097, which need to be breached to confirm further upward movement. Conversely, support levels are established at 104.901, 104.434, and 103.865, marking critical thresholds that could trigger a deeper sell-off if broken.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 104.641 and the 200-day EMA at 104.041 both provide underlying support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment as long as the index remains above the pivot point. A decisive move below 105.521, however, could shift the outlook to bearish, suggesting a potential for a sharp decline in the index.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Today, the EUR/USD pair shows modest gains, trading up by 0.08% at 1.07097. The pair is slightly above its pivot point at 1.07038, indicating a cautious bullish bias in the near term. Immediate resistance is identified at 1.07658, with subsequent levels at 1.07926 and 1.08347. These marks will be critical to watch for signs of a stronger upward momentum.

On the downside, the initial support lies at 1.06658, followed by further support levels at 1.06029 and 1.05479. These could act as potential floors, stabilizing the pair should it face downward pressure.

Technical indicators support the current mild bullish sentiment; the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.06837 reinforces the pair’s position above this short-term trendline, while the 200-day EMA at 1.07583 suggests that the upper resistance levels might be tested if bullish momentum increases. However, a move below the pivot point of 1.07038 could trigger a sharper decline, altering the market’s current trajectory.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is slightly higher today, registering a marginal gain of 0.01% at 1.24673. It trades above its pivot point at 1.24218, suggesting a tentative bullish undercurrent in the market. Resistance levels are identified at 1.25112, 1.25786, and 1.26670. Breaching these could indicate strengthening bullish momentum.

Conversely, the currency pair finds immediate support at 1.23608, with additional floors at 1.23023 and 1.22254. These levels are pivotal; a break below could catalyze a notable decline.

Technical indicators provide a mixed view: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.24461 offers near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at 1.25581 looms as potential resistance. The current positioning between these averages suggests a cautious outlook, with the market remaining bullish above the pivot of 1.24218 but vulnerable to shifts in sentiment that could prompt a downward correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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