EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Eyes on US NFP Today

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Published: Apr 5, 2024, 07:51 UTC

Key Points:

U.S. Dollar Index hints at cautious optimism, with key resistance at $104.36 and support at $103.54, signaling a potential upward shift.
EUR/USD faces bearish pressure under $1.0853; key supports at $1.0801 and $1.0765 could define short-term movements.
GBP/USD shows slight bearish trend, with crucial pivot at $1.2647; overcoming this could tilt towards bullish territory.

Market Overview

In the recent economic updates, the U.S. dollar faced mixed signals. The Unemployment Claims slightly increased to 221K compared to the previous 212K, hinting at a slight uptick in jobless claims. The Trade Balance widened to -68.9 billion dollars, more than the previous -67.6 billion, indicating a larger than expected trade deficit.

For the EUR/USD pair, data showed mixed performance in the Eurozone economy. German Factory Orders modestly rose by 0.2%, a sharp contrast to the previous -11.4%, signaling a potential stabilization in manufacturing demand. However, German Import Prices slightly decreased by -0.2%, indicating subdued inflationary pressures. French Industrial Production showed a small improvement, at 0.2%, recovering from a previous -0.9%.

In the UK, the GBP/USD pair was influenced by housing market data, with the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) month-on-month showing a decrease of -1.0%, deviating from the steady 0.3% in prior periods.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair faces key economic data with the Retail Sales month-on-month in the Eurozone, forecasted at -0.3% from a previous 0.1%, which could impact the euro’s valuation.

For the GBP/USD, upcoming indicators include the Construction PMI, expected to slightly rise to 49.8 from 49.7, and the Housing Equity Withdrawal, anticipated to worsen to -22.3 billion from -21.8 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the UK’s housing sector.

The U.S. dollar will see crucial data releases with the Average Hourly Earnings expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%, Non-Farm Employment Change predicted at 212K down from 275K, and the Unemployment Rate projected to stay steady at 3.9%.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index shows a cautiously upward trajectory, settling at $104.265, a marginal increase of 0.09%. Key price levels to watch include a pivot point at $103.92, with immediate resistance looming at $104.36. Further resistance is marked at $104.68 and $105.12.

On the downside, immediate support is pegged at $103.54, followed by $103.23 and $102.77. Technical indicators reveal the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $104.35 and the 200-Day EMA at $103.95, suggesting a tentative bullish sentiment.

The overall trend indicates bullish potential above the $103.92 pivot point, while a breach below this threshold could trigger a sharp selling trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08354, marking a slight decrease of 0.08%. The pivot point is set at $1.0853, with resistance levels at $1.0878, $1.0907, and $1.0943. Should the price ascend, these thresholds will be crucial to watch.

Support is established at $1.0801, followed by $1.0765 and $1.0730, marking potential rebound zones. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.0814, closely shadowed by the 200-Day EMA at $1.0838, indicating a compressed trading environment.

The trend is bearish below $1.0853, yet a break above could pivot to a bullish outlook, underscoring a nuanced market sentiment.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is slightly bearish, marking a 0.11% decrease to $1.26211. The trading pivot is at $1.2647. Resistance levels are at $1.2685, $1.2726, and $1.2763, presenting clear thresholds for upward movements.

Support levels are established at $1.2583, $1.2544, and $1.2507, indicating potential floors for price dips. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.2628, with the 200-Day EMA at $1.2664, suggesting a narrow range and potential consolidation.

The trend for GBP/USD is bearish below $1.2647, but surpassing this level could indicate a shift to a bullish sentiment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.