EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: PMI Surprises, Dollar Eyes 105.25

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Published: Apr 2, 2024, 07:50 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

EUR/USD reacts to Spanish job data, showing resilience with PMI at 51.4, hinting at economic stability.
Upcoming US JOLTS and Factory Orders may sway EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as Fed speakers loom large.
DXY maintains a bullish stance above pivot, with key resistance at 105.248, signaling potential uptrends.

Market Overview

The EUR/USD recently saw Spanish Unemployment Change outperforming expectations at -33.4K against the forecasted 10.0K. Additionally, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.4, slightly above the anticipated 51.1.

Events Ahead

In the upcoming sessions, attention turns to the U.S. with JOLTS Job Openings expected at 8.76 million and Factory Orders predicted to show a 1.1% increase, following a -3.6% decline. Speeches from FOMC members, including Bowman and Mester, will be closely watched for insights into future monetary policy, which could impact both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

For GBP/USD, recent data will come into play with the UK’s Final Manufacturing PMI projected at 49.9. Economic indicators like M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals will also provide critical insights into the UK’s financial health.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is exhibiting a modest uptrend, currently at 105.059, with a 0.09% increase today. It is trading above its pivot point of 104.949, hinting at a bullish sentiment. The immediate resistance levels are at 105.248, 105.489, and 105.773, which could cap upward movements.

Support is found at 104.726, 104.483, and 104.216, marking potential fallback positions. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at 104.320 and 103.850 respectively, bolster the bullish outlook, but a fall below the pivot could switch the trend to bearish.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD is currently at 1.07320, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.10%. The currency pair hovers around a pivotal point at 1.07444, which is crucial for determining the trend direction. Resistance levels are set at 1.07716, 1.08201, and 1.08552, suggesting potential upside barriers.

Conversely, support levels at 1.06978, 1.06614, and 1.06310 provide downside protection. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at 1.08106 and 1.08434, imply a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of 1.07444. A breach above this pivot may shift the bias towards a more bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.25436, experiencing a slight decline of 0.06%. The pivot point at 1.25836 acts as the critical juncture for future price movements, with immediate resistance levels observed at 1.26401, 1.26917, and 1.27549.

Support is found at 1.25190, 1.24830, and 1.24514, providing potential floors for price pullbacks. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at 1.26338 and 1.26738 respectively, indicate a bearish trend below the pivot.

A movement above this pivot may tilt the balance towards a bullish trend for GBP/USD, suggesting a cautious market sentiment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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