EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: US Retail Sales and PPI in Focus

By:

Updated: Mar 14, 2024, 08:01 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Dollar Index hints at bullish momentum, with a recent uptick to 102.87 and key resistance levels identified, suggesting potential for further gains.
EUR/USD shows resilience despite a minor dip, staying above pivotal 1.0920 mark; immediate resistance and support levels indicate a bullish sentiment.
GBP/USD remains stable with slight growth, maintaining above 1.2777 pivot; technical indicators and key levels suggest continued bullish potential.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: US Retail Sales and PPI in Focus

Market Overview

The Dollar Index, a measure of the US dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies, is influenced by various factors, including economic indicators and central bank policies. For instance, the recent 30-year Bond Auction yielded a 4.33% rate, indicating market expectations and investment sentiments.

In the Eurozone, the Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate stood at 7.4%, slightly improving from previous figures, while Industrial Production decreased by 3.2%, suggesting a contraction that could impact the EUR/USD pair.

Similarly, in the UK, GDP growth was modest at 0.2%, and Manufacturing Production showed resilience with a 0.8% increase, offering a mixed but slightly optimistic outlook for the GBP/USD.

Events Ahead

The focus now shifts to forthcoming US data releases, such as the Core PPI m/m, anticipated at 0.2%, and Retail Sales m/m, expected to show a 0.8% increase. These figures will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment toward the USD, consequently affecting the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

On March 14, the Dollar Index saw a modest increase of 0.09%, trading at 102.87. This movement places it slightly above its pivot point at 102.72, hinting at potential bullish sentiment. Key resistance levels to watch are at 103.13, 103.31, and 103.60.

Should the index breach these points, it could signal further upward momentum. Conversely, immediate support lies at 102.36, with additional floors at 102.10 and 101.91.

The technical indicators, including a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 103.12 and a 200-day EMA at 103.54, suggest that the index is teetering on the edge of bullish territory. A sustained position above 102.72 supports a bullish outlook, whereas dipping below this critical level could trigger a sharp decline.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair marginally declined by 0.08%, trading at 1.09398. Despite the slight dip, the currency pair’s positioning above its pivot point at 1.0920 suggests underlying bullish sentiment.

The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0964, with further hurdles at 1.0982 and 1.1000 potentially limiting upward movement. Support levels are established at 1.0903, followed by 1.0872 and 1.0844, which could provide a safety net for any downward trends.

The technical indicators, notably the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.09088 and the 200-day EMA at 1.08589, reinforce the bullish outlook provided the pair remains above the pivotal 1.0920 mark.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair remained steady, marking a negligible uptick to trade at 1.27976. This stability hovers above the pivot point of 1.2777, indicating a potential for continued bullish momentum. Resistance levels are set at 1.2822, 1.2864, and 1.2904, which could cap gains if reached.

Conversely, support levels at 1.2745, 1.2704, and 1.2670 offer a fallback for any downward corrections. Technical indicators, such as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2769 and the 200-day EMA at 1.2695, suggest a bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above the pivot.

However, falling below 1.2777 might trigger a notable sell-off, highlighting the importance of these levels in guiding the pair’s near-term trajectory.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Editors’ Picks