EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 13, 2020

The Euro is under pressure again on Thursday as Euro Zone government bond yields fell on Thursday, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset because of higher yields in the United States. Investors moved back into safe-haven debt markets after the Chinese province at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak reported a record rise in the death toll under a new diagnostic method.

At 12:25 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0856, down 0.0015 or -0.14%.

Also on Thursday, the European Commission kept its economic forecast for moderate Euro Zone growth for this year and 2021 but raised slightly its projection for inflation, noting the spread of the coronavirus was the key downside risk.

In an interim outlook for gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer inflation for the 19 countries sharing the Euro for 2020 and 2021, the Commission said growth in the Euro Zone would remain at 1.2% this year and next, as in 2019.

“The outlook for 2020 and 2021 is unchanged … as more positive developments are counterbalanced by negative events elsewhere,” the Commission, the EU’s executive, said.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the previous session low at 1.0866. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1095. This is highly unlikely, however, due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, traders should continue to watch for a closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the trend, but it will indicate the selling pressure is getting weaker.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.0926 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0856, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 1.0872.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0872 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the May 11, 2017 main bottom at 1.0838.

This is the last major support level before the April 10, 2017 main bottom at 1.0569.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0872 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the counter-trend buying to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at 1.0909 to 1.0915.