EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 14, 2019

The Euro is trading higher on Thursday after testing a level not seen in three-months. Given the prolonged move down in terms of price and time and the move to the plus side, the currency is now in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This would be the second closing price reversal of the week, indicating the presence of a major buyer.

At 11:58 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1265, up 0.0005 or +0.05%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1258 negated Tuesday’s closing price reversal bottom, signaling a resumption of the downtrend.

There wasn’t much of a follow-through to the downside through 1.1258 with aggressive counter-trend buyers coming in at 1.1249. The move was strong enough to turn the Forex pair higher for the session. This puts the EUR/USD in a position to form a closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 1.1249 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, while a move through 1.1342 will change the main trend to up.

The new minor range is 1.1342 to 1.1249. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 1.1296. This price is acting like resistance.

The main range is 1.1514 to 1.1249. If the trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 1.1382 to 1.1413 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 1.1261.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1261 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the pivot at 1.1296. Overtaking this level should lead to a test of a downtrending angle at 1.1314.

The angle at 1.1314 has been guiding the EUR/USD lower since the 1.1514 main top on January 31. It even stopped the rally on Wednesday. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this angle, but if it is taken out then look for a potential acceleration to the upside with 1.1342 the next likely upside target.

Taking out 1.1342 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger another acceleration into 1.1382.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1261 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of the intraday low at 1.1249. If this price fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the November 21 main bottom at 1.1216.