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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading at a four-week low against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday after another rise in U.S. Treasury yields made the greenback a more attractive asset. Investors, returning from Monday’s Federal bank holiday, picked up where they left off on Friday by driving the Euro to its lowest level since October 15.

Fundamentally, traders grew optimistic ahead of a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump, in which he is expected to delay a tariff decision on European carmakers by six months.

At 14:39 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1018, down 0.0015 or -0.13%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Earlier today, the downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out Monday’s closing price reversal bottom at 1.1016. The next potential target is the minor bottom at 1.0991.

The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.1176. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the EUR/USD remains inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the Forex pair.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1018, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at 1.1029 and the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1016.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1016 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is the main Fibonacci level at 1.0994, followed closely by the minor bottom at 1.0991.

Taking out 1.0991 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 1.0954.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 1.1029 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the nearest target angle dropping in at 1.1096.

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