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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday as concerns over U.S.-China trade relations drove investors into the safety of lower-yielding assets like Treasury Bonds, Gold, the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Yes, due to the negative interest rate in the Euro Zone the single-currency is now a safe-haven asset.

At 12:49 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0989, up 0.0018 or +0.17%.

The single-currency is moving higher as investor optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks dimmed, encouraging them to seek protection in safe-haven Treasury bonds. U.S. Treasury yields fell on the move, making the dollar a less-attractive asset, while driving up demand for the Euro.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at 1.0879 on October 1.

A trade through yesterday’s closing price reversal top at 1.1001 will reaffirm the shift in momentum to the upside. A trade through 1.0962 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day sell-off.

The minor range is 1.0879 to 1.1001. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.0940 is a potential downside target.

The short-term range is 1.1110 to 1.0879. Its retracement zone at 1.0995 to 1.1022 has been acting like resistance for four days. Taking out 1.1022 will indicate strong buying is driving the rally.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.0989, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0979 and the short-term 50% level at 1.0995.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0979 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the pivot at 1.0940, followed by the uptrending Gann angle at 1.0929.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0995 will signal the presence of buyers. This could drive the EUR/USD through the closing price reversal top at 1.1001, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1009. The next two targets are a Fibonacci level at 1.1022 and another downtrending Gann angle at 1.1025.

The angle at 1.1025 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

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