EUR/USD Price Forecast – EUR/USD Range Bound Near Friday Lows Amid Holiday Think Market

Early Monday sees some risk appetite climb, but momentum remains tepid amid holiday thin market
Colin First
EurDollar Notes

EUR/USD is catching some mild bidding action into 1.1390, winding through Monday’s early trading session, after the pair got knocked sharply lower late last week. Monday has opened on the moderate side, though gains have been limited. The Euro slipped from recent highs near 1.1485 late last week as investor sentiment continues to get knocked back by spiraling economic data and traders who remain fearful of a continued slowdown across the board impeding progress.

Risk-off sentiment soared last week and US equities had their worst week in a decade as political and economic risks mount on both mainland Europe, in the UK and the USA. As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1391 up by 0.18% on the day.

Concerns of Global Economic Slowdown Has Trapped the Pair Inside A Wide Price Band

Moving forward this week, the market is currently in holiday mood which means low liquidity in the market across major FX centers.  On the release front, the economic calendar is free and clear of EU data at the start the new week ahead of Christmas holiday slated for tomorrow. US markets will see release of Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, slated to come in at 0.24% and focus on other major releases of the week scheduled to release on Thursday and Friday – US CB consumer confidence, new home sales data and pending home sales data as equity and forex markets in major European markets are closed for Christmas till Wednesday. When looking from a technical perspective, the pair seems to be trapped in wider price band with lower limits above mid 1.25 handle and the upper limit at 1.15 handle amid concerns of a global economic slowdown.

The pair faces a risk of medium-term trend resumption following its price reversal on Friday. Immediate support lies at the 1.1300 level where a violation if seen will aim at the 1.1250 level. A break below here will aim at the 1.1250/1.1200 levels. Further down, support comes in at the 1.1150.

On the upside, resistance resides at 1.1400 levels with a breakthrough at said level opening the door for further upside towards the 1.1450 level. Further up, resistance comes in at the 1.1500 level where a violation will expose the 1.1550 level. In immediate trading hours though, the path with least resistance seems to be on the downside.

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