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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, September 19, 2019

The Euro has dropped a bit during early trading on Wednesday, waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move. While an interest rate cut is all but priced in, there could be a short-term “knee-jerk reaction” to the upside to send the Euro higher. If that’s going to be the case, then the overall outlook of the economies will come back into focus. With that set up, I’ll be looking to fade either at the 50 day EMA or perhaps the 1.12 handle. This is the type of trade that relies a lot on experience, and the ability to see when the market is running out of steam. Quite frankly, unless the Federal Reserve comes out with an extraordinarily dovish statement, the Euro won’t be able to rally for very long.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 19.09.19

Keep in mind that Germany could very well be heading into recession in Italy already is. The European Union has to worry about the British leaving, and the economic numbers, although getting a little bit better as of late, are still very anemic in comparison to the United States. That being the case, it makes sense that this market should continue the downward trend, but the 1.10 EUR level obviously will cause a lot of psychological support and noise. With that, a bounce could happen but again I believe that it’s only a short lived a bounce at best. To the downside, the 1.09 EUR level is supportive as well, but I do believe that eventually gets broken, barring some type of extraordinarily dovish action by the Federal Reserve.

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