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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, October 31, 2019

The Euro has gone back and forth during trading on Wednesday as we await the FOMC statement. That being said, the larger pattern is a bit of a bullish flag but there are a couple of conflicting signals here that will continue to cause issues for traders. At this point, the 200 day EMA is closer to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.12 region, and it should also be noted that the top of the flag is basically at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 31.10.19

Just below, at the 1.1075 handle, there has been signs of support, and I do believe in fact that is an area that should be paid attention to. If the market were to break down below there it’s very likely that the Euro would find itself closer to the 1.10 level underneath. That is an area that could give way to the 1.09 level underneath which was the low. The market is in a longer term downtrend anyway, so at this point it makes sense that the market will pay close attention to both of these levels. If we do break down from here, then it’s a simple continuation of what we have seen over the last 18 months. Ultimately, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of downward pressure. As far as turning around completely, a daily close above the 200 day EMA would be the beginning of a trend change that would probably need to see a weekly close above that level as well.

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