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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, August 29, 2019

The Euro continues to be negative overall, as we tried to reach above the 1.11 level but were turned around quite rapidly to grind lower. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to go down to the 1.10 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Ultimately, this is a market that will attract a lot of attention when it comes down to that area. If we break down through that level, it’s very likely that we could then go down to the 1.05 level given enough time.

Euro to Dollar Forecast Video 29.08.19

Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that rallies will continue to run into trouble and the red 50 day EMA above continues to offer selling pressure. Because of this I would anticipate that the market offers plenty of opportunities to pick up “value” every time we rally because it will offer a cheap US dollar. The US dollar will continue to be favored due to a bit of a fear factor, and then of course the idea of the bond markets rallying quite a bit continues to offer support for the greenback. All things being equal, this is a market that will be more of a grinding situation than anything else.

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The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has offered support and resistance, and now that we are below there it’s likely that we will go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level which is closer to the 1.05 EUR level, thus the longer-term target. At this point in time it’s likely that this is more of a grind, so therefore look for short-term rallies to sell.

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