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Christopher Lewis
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EUR/USD

The Euro has rallied significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching just above the 1.18 level by the time New York got on board. The question now probably focuses on whether or not there is going to be stimulus coming out of the US, because Nancy Pelosi suggested that Tuesday was the “deadline” to get anything done between now and the election. My suspicion is they will find a way to cause some type of issue, as politicians in the United States continue to become more childless each day. However, the market seem to cling on to some kind of hope so that is something worth paying attention to.

EUR/USD Video 21.10.20

There is the possibility that we get a “sell the news” type of event when it comes to stimulus, meaning that the markets may do exactly opposite of what you expect. After all, we have been pricing in the idea of stimulus for so long that perhaps people will start to take profit. While that is not my base case scenario, it is something worth paying attention to. To the downside, I believe that the 1.17 level will probably continue to be crucial, and therefore if we were to break down below there it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.16 handle.

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To the upside, I see the 1.1850 level as offering resistance, just as the 1.19 level is above there, and of course the 1.20 level which has been a massive amount of noise. If we can break above the 1.20 level, then the Euro can continue a longer-term move to the upside, but we are clearly quite a way from having that happen right now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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