EUR/USD Price Forecast – EURO On Bear’s Path Following ECB Draghi’s Dovish Comments

EUR/USD pair which saw steep downside move yesterday on cautious investor tone ahead of Brexit vote, recovered from weekly lows at 1.1381 back above 1.14 handle but lack of fundamental support has kept the pair trading in range bound fashion in lower half of 1.14 price levels. As parliamentary rejection of Brexit deal was mostly priced in, the outcome which met expectations gave EURO bulls some momentum which helped the common currency to gain ground above 1.14 handle. However market bears have higher grip on the pair’s momentum as weak German economic scenario as visible from recent macro data updates and comments from ECB Draghi’s speech yesterday when he stated that euro zone economy is weaker than expected greatly influenced investor sentiment.

US Retail Sales Data Could Prove To Be Deal Breaker Today

Given ongoing political-economic clashes in Euro area in some key markets such as France, Italy and Germany and ongoing brexit clout of euro area economic activities, economic growth has been unusually slow all of which is now supporting EURO bears significantly. Meanwhile UK parliament will see another vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Theresa May today which was put into motion following calls from Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn who has been after PM May for a while now owing to her intentional brexit progress sabotage. As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1409 down by 0.39% on the day.

On release front today, aside from no-confidence vote on PM May investors focus is on Germany & Italy’s CPI updates in European market hours and retail sales, crude oil inventory data from US market which are scheduled to release later in the day.  Better than expected US retail sales data could help USD drag the pair back near to or well below weekly lows hit yesterday. When looking from technical perspective, the decline is likely to continue depending on today’s news & event driven momentum. However there is strong support near 1.1380 and 1.1330 price levels, a break below 1.1330 would signal the end of recent bullish rally for EURO. Meanwhile, on the upside there are strong resistance near 1.1455 and 1.1495 price levels which are to be breached for continuation of recent bullish rally in near future trading sessions.