EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro rallies again on Thursday

The Euro rallied a bit during the day on Thursday, breaking above the 50 day EMA, reaching towards the vital 1.13 level.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, July 12, 2019

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the crucial 1.13 level, an area that has been significant resistance. We are starting to pull back a bit, so I think we are trying to churn and build up the necessary momentum to break towards the 1.1350 level. Ultimately, this is a market that will be moving based upon the Federal Reserve more than anything else, as the US dollar will probably get sold off.

EURUSD analysis Video 12.07.19

Looking at this chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement has held quite nicely, and now it looks as if we are continuing the overall bottoming process that we have been in for some time. Ultimately, if we can break above the 200 day EMA or the 1.1350 level, then it’s very likely that we should continue to go back to the upside. I believe that as long as we don’t make a “lower low”, we are in relatively decent shape. After all, everybody knows of the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, and although the Euro doesn’t necessarily reflect strength, it is mispriced due to the fact that the Fed is certainly going to get very soft.

I believe that we are trying to form some type of bottoming pattern, but that takes quite a bit of time sometimes. Ultimately, if we did break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level then I think we are trying to find even more support at the 1.11 level underneath. Overall, this is a market that I think will eventually go higher but expected to be very noisy for the rest of the summer as it is a generally illiquid time of year, and of course there are a lot of questions when it comes to global growth.

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