EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Recovering Into the Weekend

The Euro initially fell during the trading session on Friday, but then turned around to recover a bit in order to regain the 1.1850 level. That being said, there is a significant amount of resistance just above and it is also obvious that the market has been in a bit of a downtrend over the last couple of weeks. Quite frankly, a lot of this is going to come down to the 10 year note and what the yield currently is. The 1.25% level in the 10 year note needs to be defended, because if yields go below there, it will spark a major “risk off event.” So far, we have seen the market defend that level.

EUR/USD Video 12.07.21

That being said, the 200 day EMA in this pair is sitting at roughly 1.1920, so therefore I think that we are going to continue to see selling pressure just above. On the short-term rally, it looks as if we are probably going to run into a significant amount of selling pressure based upon the action of the last couple weeks, so with that being said I am looking for signs of exhaustion in order to get short again. It is not until we break above the 200 day EMA on a daily close that I consider buying this pair, and quite frankly I would still be a bit worried about the 1.20 handle above, because it has been important more than once, and it does make quite a bit of sense that the market would have to respect that area, at least in so much as there should be a little bit of resistance in that general vicinity.

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