EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Slams Into 50 Day EMA

The Euro rallied towards the 1.17 level during the trading session on Tuesday, which also features the 50 day EMA. This is a perfect retest of previous support, so I anticipate that there should be some selling here. Certainly, if you are looking to sell this pair at the 1.17 level would be just about as perfect of an area as you could point to on the chart. Does this mean that the Euro has to start falling? Of course not. However, it is a classic “retest”, something that a lot of technical traders will be looking towards.

EUR/USD Video 30.09.20

Furthermore, we have to worry about the coronavirus numbers in the European Union rising, and that of course is going to weigh upon the Euro itself. Ultimately, this is a market that has recently broken pretty significant support, so one would think that we should continue to go a bit lower, at least until we find major support at the 1.15 handle. Furthermore, the Euro currently has the highest speculative position in the futures market, meaning that if it unwinds, the Euro could fall apart rather quickly. After all, that tends to be a bit of a leading indicator.

Furthermore, the coronavirus figures in the United States seem to be somewhat stable, and of course we have the presidential reality show going on, which can cause a lot of fear. That fear has people looking towards the US Treasuries, which of course need US dollars to fund that trade. All things being equal, I believe that we are probably going to see exhaustion that we can fade even enough time.

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