EUR/USD Price Forecast – Range Bound Action With Bearish Bias To Continue Across The Day

The EURUSD pair saw mixed price action last Friday on macro data-driven momentum. Following a highly eventful month, the month of February EURUSD pair close on a positive note at the start of the month. However, price action failed to gain a breakout as mixed macro data on both sides of Atlantic resulted in yet another dead cat bounce price move. EURO gained positive momentum post update on better than expected Euro area CPI update. However, bulls lacked the strength to sustain positive price action owing to the dovish outlook for the month ahead resulting in gains being capped slightly below 1.15 handle. Further better than expected US NFP data and ISM manufacturing data helped US Dollar gain an upper hand and erase gains made early in the day.

USD Price Dynamics To Dictate Short Term Directional Move

As trading session opened for the week, US Dollar gained strength in the broad market and the pair has consolidated near intra-day lows. The price action for rest of the day is expected to remain range bound as both US dollar and EURO lacks the required strength to establish a breakout action. News and event-driven momentum across last month have resulted in a scenario where both bulls and bears are equally strong. Price action is subdued in the broad market as two major markets in Asian – China & Singapore are closed for the day which greatly affects volatility and price action in the market. There are no major economic releases in EURO while US market will see the release of Factory orders data but the same in unlikely to have any major impact on price action.

As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1439 down by 0.13% on the day. Given the lack of any market moving updates and headlines, US dollar price momentum in the broad market will continue to drive the pair’s price action for rest of the day. When looking from a technical perspective, the price in moving well below 20, 50 & 100 MA’s in the hourly chart while momentum indicators RSI & Stochastics are moving in the neutral zone with downward incline but yet to breach oversold region. While price is above moving all three MA’s in the daily chart, momentum indicators show downward incline which suggests the path with least resistance moving forward is to the downside. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1425, 1.1390, 1.1350 and 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1535 respectively.