EUR/USD Price Forecast – the Euro runs into resistance

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as Europeans bought their own currency in reaction to the Federal Reserve suggesting that perhaps they are only going to raise interest rates twice next year instead of three. They have become more “data dependent”, but quite frankly I don’t know that anything has substantially changed. Beyond that, the European Union has a handful of issues out there that are still crucial to pay attention to, although we did break above the 50 day EMA. Nonetheless, we are late in the year and deep in issues to think that the Euro is going to suddenly skyrocket in value.

EURUSD analysis Video 21.12.18

The 1.15 level above is massive resistance, extending to the 1.16 level. That is a massive level that I think will take a lot to break through. When you look at the charts, it’s going to be difficult to break above there and I think that if we did, then we could go to the 1.18 level above. Beyond that, the area just below is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, so we could be seeing a longer-term change, but right now I think going into the end of the year it’s difficult to expect that. I would anticipate more sideways action more than anything else, so at this point it’s likely that the rally will be somewhat short-lived. I’m not necessarily looking for to break down either but think of it this way: The Federal Reserve sounding a bit more dovish should have sent this market through the roof. However, it hasn’t broken through the major resistance barrier. I think bore chop is ahead of us.