EUR/USD, USD/CAD, BTC/USD and NASDAQ 100 Forecast – Risk Appetite Continues to be in Flux

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The first chart I have in front of you is the Euro-Dollar and while I’m not a huge trader of this pair because, quite frankl,y it doesn’t move enough, the reality is that you can learn a lot about what the dollar might do by watching the euro, especially when it is at a point of inflection like it is right now. We’d recently broken out, pulled back, and now we’re trying to sort out whether or not that previous resistance will hold. If the euro starts to rise here, that for me could kick off several other moves in the marketplace, mainly based on US dollar weakness.

If it falls below the 1.18 level and the 50-day EMA, that for me spells trouble for risk appetite in general. And we could see a lot of other dominoes fall right along with it. For those who want to trade this pair, based on the technical analysis in theory, the measured move is to somewhere closer to 1.23. 1.23, about five years ago there was a major resistance barrier, and these major resistance barriers do tend to have some type of hold on the market so that’s something worth watching. So, if the US dollar starts to sell off, that might be your eventual target.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Another currency pair involving the US dollar that I’m watching is the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. The 1.35 level continues to be a major support level, and if we were to break below there, that would kick off quite a bit of dollar weakness. But here, I’m actually waiting to see if it holds, because if it holds and it bounces, then that could give you another idea of US dollar strength.

Again, short-term buy on the dip and bounce play might be possible here. I talked about that earlier this week, and it did in fact turn out to be the case. But I don’t think you’re trying to marry the position here. The market is far too choppy, and quite frankly, most markets are a little lost at the moment.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

The third chart I’m looking at is Bitcoin, and that’s because I believe the $72,000 level is crucial. Now, whether or not we break above there during the trading session remains to be seen, but I think if you get that happening, you could see a flood into Bitcoin, and by extension, that probably opens up risk parameters in other markets around the world. Generally speaking, people do not buy Bitcoin when they’re fearful of something, so that’s a good sign in and of itself. If we were to fall from here, the $60,000 level needs to hold because if it doesn’t, Bitcoin drops another $10,000, opening up a short possibility.

NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq 100, I’ll be watching during the day to see if we can break above the $25,000 level. This would be the type of setup that I think you’re looking to buy into the weekend and hold in next week if we can stay above $25,000 for say 30 to 60 minutes. The market certainly has a lot of support underneath there, the 200-day EMA. So, while I’m looking at this today, it’s not just a today situation. It could be a six, or seven-day trade trying to send the market back to the highs.

It’s just a simple continuation of the consolidation play. CPI came out at 0.3% for the core month-over-month. And that’s basically what we expected, but some of the longer-term numbers actually came in a tenth of a percent under where they were expected, so maybe people will start to try to bank on that cheap money coming out of the Federal Reserve again.