The US dollar has pulled back a bit in the early hours of Friday, as we continue to see a lot of traders sort out what the Federal Reserve is going to be doing in the next few months. At this point, they are expected to cut.
The euro rallied a bit during the trading session here on Friday, as we have seen quite a bit of US dollar weakness around the world. That being said, we’re still just chopping back and forth. There’s no real directionality in the short term, but over the long term, obviously, the euro had been quite a bit more bullish than the US dollar. Recently, we had formed a double top at the 1.18 level, so that is worth paying attention to, and we are below there. So, we’ll see. I think this is a market that’s still trying to make a few decisions.
The dollar has dropped against the Japanese yen to test the 50-day EMA, but it is starting to show signs of support. If we can turn around and break above that 148 yen level, then I’d be much more comfortable with my long position, but you do get paid to hang on to it, and I have been in this for a while, so that does help. A break above the 148 yen level, I believe, opens up a move to about 150.50 yen. If we break down below here, then the 146 yen level is support, right along with the 145 yen level.
The Australian dollar has rallied as well, but I would point out that it has not done so as much as the yen or the euro. The 0.6550 level continues to be an area of interest as it was like a brick wall during the Thursday session. And here on Friday, we find ourselves trying to bounce a bit, but not really with any momentum. The Australian dollar has been underwhelming, to say the least, for quite some time. While the world buried the US dollar, the Australian dollar just somewhat ended up grinding to the upside, but not with very much momentum. This tells you everything you need to know. If we start to see US dollar strength again, the Australian dollar is going to get absolutely pummeled.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.