EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Quiet in Early Friday Trading

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has gone back and forth during the early hours here on Friday. But really at this point in time, we have a scenario where we are basically trying to determine whether or not we continue to drop. The 50 day EMA sits right about where we are now. And of course we have a major uptrend line. And below there, the 1.16 level is also support.

So, with all of that being said, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppiness, but if we were to break down below the 1.16 level and with the PCE price index number coming out on Friday, that’s possible, could be the end of the uptrend for the Euro, the beginning of the turnaround. If we bounce from here, then the 1.18 level above should end up being a significant barrier.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the early hours on Friday against the Japanese yen, as we had broken out of a major consolidation on Thursday. Ultimately, at this point, it looks like the market is probably going to go looking to the 151 yen level above. A short-term pullback could be in the cards, but if we get that, I would assume that the previous resistance barrier of 149 yen should offer support based on the market memory principle. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar. And I think that’s going to continue to play in this market.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially did try to recover a bit during the early hours on Friday, but has failed at the 0.6550 level, showing signs of hesitation at a level that quite frankly we’ve been messing around with for some time. If we can break above the 0.6550 level, we could open up a move to the 0.66 level, possibly even the 0.67 level. But at this point, the Aussie looks pretty soft.

The Aussie dollar has been the weakest performer against the US dollar for months now. And this is probably the first place you’re going to see things fall apart. Clearly, when you look at the New Zealand dollar, you can see how the general region isn’t faring well against the greenback. And I think this will more likely than not continue to be the case.

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