EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Gives Up Early Gains for the Week

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 04.12.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the week, testing the 200-Week EMA and of course the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Underneath, we have supported the 1.08 level that comes into the picture, and therefore if we break down below there it’s likely that we could go down to the 50-Week EMA.

All things being equal, we could be getting ready to set up a consolidation area, but as I record this, the market looks as if it is ready to break back down so I’m paying close attention to the bottom of the previous weekly candlestick, because I think that’s what gives us the heads up as to the market breaking down. On the other hand, if we do consolidate then it’s going to be difficult for longer-term traders to make a lot of money, as you will probably be relegated to picking up short-term trades on something along the lines of a 4 hour chart or even an hourly chart.

All things being equal, another thing that will have to be paid close attention to is the next FOMC meeting, because traders believe that the Federal Reserve is out of the equation, but if they stay “higher for longer”, and the ECB has to start cutting rates, that will send this market right back around in a heartbeat. Because of this, I think it’s probably a matter of being very cautious with the position sizing, but also recognizing that you need to be aware that we could see a nice explosive move that you can take advantage of soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.