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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 13, 2015, 04:51 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY is trading at 132.33 down by 29 points as traders review the release of industrial production numbers this

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

eurjpy friday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is trading at 132.33 down by 29 points as traders review the release of industrial production numbers this morning along with a Tertiary index. The annual industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected pace of 3.6% in September, dampened by a slower expansion in the mining sector.

Also, the retail inflation climbed to a four-month high in October as food prices escalated on supply deficiency in pulses. Consumer price index based inflation, the primary gauge of central bank, rose to 5% in October versus 4.41% in the previous month.

Asian shares are trading lower after a sharp decline in commodity prices on concerns that sluggish global growth may worsen the supply glut, while the investors remain edgy that the US Federal Reserve may hike interest rates in the month of December. Meanwhile, crude oil prices hit two-and-a-half-month lows on Thursday on oversupply glut.

The euro has seen a sharp fall against the dollar within a short period of time, reaching similar oversold levels on technical indicators.

Risk reversals, a gauge of market positioning and sentiment, are close to May levels, especially in the front end, signaling that traders assign similar probabilities on trend continuation.

What is different this time is that the ECB recently stepped up its rhetoric to further ease monetary policy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

 1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

 

0.2%

0.1%

   

 

eurjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)

 

 

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

-0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

-0.2%

-1.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

 

0.9%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

-5.00

-11.36

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

 

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