The futures markets are pointing to another positive open. The relief rally could have legs if today's stats avoid disappointment...
Wednesday delivered a rebound for the European majors. Leading the way was the CAC40, which rose by 1.21%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.96% and 0.89% respectively.
Outside of the economic data, which was market positive, a shift in sentiment towards geopolitical risk provided further support.
On Tuesday, MPs took control of Parliament, which yielded legislation to prevent the British PM to pull Britain out without a deal.
From the EU, news of Five Star Movement members voting, by a vast majority, in favor of a coalition with the Democratic Party was also a positive.
And from Asia, news hitting the wires of HK Leader Carrie Lam announcing plans to withdraw the extradition bill got things moving in the early part of the day.
It was a particularly busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Wednesday. August service sector PMI numbers out Spain and Italy and finalized numbers out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone provided direction.
Spain’s service PMI rose from 52.9 to 54.3, coming in well ahead of a forecasted 53.0.
The Italian service PMI fell from 51.7 to 50.6, which was worse than a forecasted 51.6.
France’s finalized PMI came in at 53.4, upwardly revised from a prelim 53.3. In July, the PMI had stood at 52.6.
The German service PMI came in at 54.8, upward revised from a prelim 54.4 and up from a July 54.5.
At the Eurozone level, the service PMI came in at 53.5, upwardly revised from a prelim 53.4. The Eurozone composite was also revised upwards, from 51.8 to 51.9. In July, the composite had stood at 51.5. According to the finalized August composite PMI survey,
Eurozone July retail sales figures failed to pin back the majors on the day, in spite of retail sales falling by 0.6%, month-on-month. Retail sales had risen by 1.1% in June.
According to Eurostat,
From the U.S, July trade data had a muted impact on the majors late in the session.
From the DAX, Wirecard and ThyssenKrupp led the way in the rebound, surging by 4.16% and by 3.82% respectively. From the auto sector, Continental and Daimler were also amongst the leading stocks, rising by 3.57% and 2.23% respectively. BMW and Volkswagen saw more modest gains of 1.36% and 1.56% respectively.
The shift in risk sentiment also provided strong support for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 2.08%, with Commerzbank up by 2.62%.
From the CAC, it was also a bullish day for the banks. Soc Gen and BNP Paribas led the way, with gains of 1.68% and 1.00% respectively. Credit Agricole trailed with a 0.83% rise on the day. From the auto sector, Renault and Peugeot both rallied by 2.42%.
The VIX Index reversed two consecutive gains on Wednesday, sliding 11.85% to end the day at 17.3.
Geopolitical risk eased throughout the day as news from HK to London alleviated market tensions.
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. July factory orders figures are due out of Germany in the early part of the day. While the forecast is negative for the majors, the latest shift in market risk appetite may have more legs in the day ahead.
Later in the day, economic data out of the U.S include August ADP nonfarm employment change figures, factory orders and August service sector PMIs.
We can expect the markets to be particularly sensitive to the factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and ADP numbers. The weekly jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, and unit labor cost figures will likely have a muted impact.
Outside of the stats, updates on Brexit will also influence. It’s a race against time, as the House of Lords receives the Bill to block a no-deal Brexit ahead of next week’s suspension of Parliament.
While geopolitical risk has abated, the U.S – China trade war continues and requires monitoring.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was up by 43.5 points, with the Dow Mini up by 53 points.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.