Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 28th May

  • GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun)
  • Eurozone Business Confidence

Wednesday, 29th May

  • French Consumer Spending m/m (Apr)
  • French GDP q/q (Q1)
  • German Unemployment Change (May)
  • German Unemployment Rate (May)

Thursday, 30th May

  • Spanish HICP (YoY) (May)

Friday, 31st May

  • German Retail Sales m/m (Apr)
  • Italian CPI m/m (May)
  • German CPI m/m (May)

The Majors

The European majors managed to make it a 2nd day in the green following on from Friday’s gains.

The DAX led the way, gaining 0.5%, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 rising by 0.37% and by 0.22% respectively.

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In spite of the 2nd consecutive day of gains, the DAX was down 2.21% for the current month, with the CAC down by 4.48%, supporting the traditional May sell-off.

Support for the majors came from the EU parliamentary election results. While the mainstream parties lost some ground, expectations had been for populist and far-right parties to win more seats.

Gains were tempered, however, with U.S President Trump stating that the U.S was not yet ready to make a trade deal with China.

With the U.S markets closed on the day, there were no stats to influence from across the Pond.

The Stats

The economic calendar was on the quiet side on Monday. French jobseeker figures provided little direction ahead of the open. Total jobseekers fell from 3,382.6k to 3,372.9k.

The Market Movers

On a relatively quiet day, where the markets were more interested in EU election results than trade or economic conditions, talk of a Renault – Fiat merger grabbed the headlines. Renault ended the day with a 12.09% gain, with Fiat up by 7.98% on the day.

From the DAX, Wirecard led the way once more, rising by 2.31%, with Deutsche Bank up by 1.5%.

In spite of the talk of a Renault – Fiat merger, German autos were mixed on the day. Volkswagen gained 1.01%, with Daimler and Continental up by 0.71% and by 0.34% respectively. By contrast, BMW (-0.36%) joined French car maker Peugeot (-3.25%) in the red.

From elsewhere, UniCredit S.p.A slid by 2.28% off the back of news that Italy may face disciplinary action over ballooning public debt.

From the CAC, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole ended the day up by 0.67% and by 1.62% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar.

Germany’s June GfK consumer climate figures are due out ahead of the European open. While forecasts are market neutral, any weaker than forecast would be negative for the markets.

Later in the day, the Eurozone’s May business confidence figures will also provide direction. Forecasts are market negative.

From outside of the Eurozone, U.S May consumer confidence figures will also have an impact on market risk appetite later in the day.

U.S consumer confidence has been on the rise of late, but housing sector data suggests that some concern over the economic outlook may have crept in.

Outside of the stats, we can expect market sensitivity to trade chatter to persist through the day. With the U.S President announcing progress on trade talks with Japan, it may not be long before the EU comes under the spotlight.

At the time of writing, the DAX30 was up by 21.5 points, with the Dow Mini up by 52 points.

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