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Bob Mason
Cac 40 indice in downtrend mode indicates global economy enter recession

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 8th March

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)

Tuesday, 9th March

German Trade Balance (Jan)

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French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4)

Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Final

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q4) Final

Thursday, 11th March

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)

ECB Press Conference

Friday, 12th March

German CPI (MoM) (Feb)

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Feb)

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb)

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)

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The Majors

It was a bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

On Friday, the DAX30 fell by 0.96%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the day with losses of 0.82% and 0.78% respectively.

Economic data from Germany and the U.S failed to reverse losses from early in the day, as U.S Treasury yields climbed further.

For the European markets, it had also been the first opportunity to respond to FED Chair Powell’s post-European session speech.

A lack of commitment to address yields led to a pullback in the U.S equities, which spilled into the European session.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Friday.  German factory orders were in focus going into the European open.

In January, factory orders increased by 1.4%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.7% increase. In December, orders had fallen by 1.9%.

According to Destatis,

  • Compared with January 2020, new orders were up 2.5% and by 3.7% when compared with February 2020.
  • Domestic orders slid by 2.6%, while foreign orders increased by 4.2%, month-on-month.
  • New orders from the euro area rose 3.9%, with new orders from other countries jumping by 4.4%.
  • Manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 0.2%, with new orders of capital goods up 3.3%.
  • Consumer goods manufacturers, however, reported a 5.8% slide in new orders.

From the U.S

It was a busier session, with official government labor market figures for February in focus late in the European session.

Nonfarm payrolls impressed, with a 379K jump in February. The better than expected rise took the unemployment rate down from 6.3% to 6.2%.

In January, nonfarm payrolls had risen by a more modest 166k.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector on Friday. Volkswagen rallied by 3.68%, with Daimler rising by 1.32%. BMW and Continental saw relatively modest gains of 0.90% and 0.45% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 3.59%, with Commerzbank gaining by 0.92%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas fell by 0.12%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen ended the day with gains of 0.87% and 0.57% respectively.

The French auto sector saw further losses. Stellantis NV and Renault fell by 1.04% and by 1.60% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE ended the day down by 6.13% and by 4.87% respectively.

On the VIX Index

A run of 3 consecutive days in the green came to an end for the VIX on Friday. Reversing a 7.12% rise from Thursday, the VIX slid by 13.69% to end the day at 24.66.

The NASDAQ rose by 1.55%, with the Dow and S&P500 gaining by 1.85% and by 1.95% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s quieter day ahead on the European economic calendar. German industrial production figures for January are due out later this morning.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect the numbers to influence going into the European session.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide direction, leaving the majors in the hands of FOMC member chatter and chatter from Capitol Hill.

Ahead of the European open, any updates from China’s National People’s Congress will need considering.

Trade data from China will also set the tone.

In February, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $78.17bn to $103.25bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $60.00bn.

Year-on-year, exports jumped by 60.6%, following an 18.1% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 38.9% surge.

Imports rose by 22.2%, following a 6.5% increase in January. Economists had forecast a 15.0% jump.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 101 points with the DAX up by 133 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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