EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis July 8, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD had the bottom drop out, with traders worried about negative interest rates from the ECB after dovish comments from Mr. Draghi yesterday followed by a poor print of German factory orders and the US jobs data supporting a stronger than expected recovery, the euro fell to trade at 1.2824 giving back 91 pips after the release.

The dollar extended gains versus major rivals on Friday after data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 195,000 in June. The euro traded at $1.2825, a loss of 0.6%, after hitting an intraday low at $1.2813 in the wake of the data,, its lowest level versus the dollar since late May. The Dollar Index climbed to the highest level since 2010 after U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast in June, fueling bets the Federal Reserve will begin slowing unprecedented monetary stimulus.

The U.S. currency rose versus most major peers. The dollar gauge, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback versus currencies of six major U.S. trade partners, has gained 4.7 percent since June 18, the day before Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may begin cutting bond buying this year if growth meets officials’ forecasts. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged yesterday to keep rates at a record low for an extended period. U.S. payrolls rose by 195,000 workers for a second straight month, the Labor Department reported. The forecast projected a 165,000 gain after a previously reported 175,000 increase in May. The jobless rate stayed at 7.6 percent, while hourly earnings in the year ended in June advanced by the most since July 2011. Payrolls have increased by an average of 189,000 jobs each month this year through May, Labor Department data show. They grew in 2011 and 2012 by an average of 179,000 a month. The Dollar Index fell 0.2 percent on April 5 when the Labor Department said employers added 88,000 workers the previous month, less than half a Bloomberg survey projection for an increase of 190,000 positions, fueling speculation U.S. growth was slowing.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.   

Economic Data July 5, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP,CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Jul 08 09:30 Germany

Jul 08 15:30 Italy

Jul 09 08:10 Holland

Jul 09 09:10 Norway

Jul 09 09:30 UK

Jul 09 17:00 US

Jul 10 09:10 Italy

Jul 10 09:30 Germany

Jul 10 09:30 Swiss

Jul 10 17:00 US

Jul 11 09:10 Italy

Jul 11 14:30 UK

Jul 11 15:00 US

Jul 11 17:00 US

Jul 12 10:30 Belgium