The EUR/USD is trading higher shortly before the U.S. opening and in a position to post a dramatic closing price reversal bottom. This doesn’t mean the trend is changing to up, but it could lead to a change in trend. Most of the time, it indicates the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1832 will change the main trend to up. Taking out the intraday low at 1.1695 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could trigger a break into the major support at 1.1661.
The major retracement zone is 1.1702 to 1.1610. Today’s intraday low was formed at 1.1695, just slightly below the major 50% level at 1.1702. This move gave short sellers a reason to book profits. It may have also attracted a few aggressive counter-trend buyers.
The short-term range is 1.1832 to 1.1695. Its retracement zone at 1.1764 to 1.1780 is the first upside target today.
The intermediate-term range is 1.2033 to 1.1695. If the trend changes to up then look for the rally to extend into its retracement zone at 1.1864 to 1.1904.
Daily Forecast
Based on the current price at 1.1757 and the earlier price action, the EUR/USD is in a position to post a closing price reversal bottom. A close over 1.1731 will accomplish this.
Currently, resistance is clustered at 1.1752, 1.1764, 1.1780 and 1.1792. Once we clear out of this area, buyers will have a clear shot at 1.1832.
Taking out 1.1832 will change the main trend to up with the next major target angle 1.1853, followed by the 50% level at 1.1864.
The inability to overcome 1.1752 will indicate the presence of sellers. They may try to drive the market lower for the session. This will be followed by 1.1702 and 1.1695.
If 1.1695 fails, the EUR/USD could collapse to 1.1661 then 1.1610.
The conditions are ripe for a closing price reversal today. All we need is a close over 1.1731. If this occurs then look for a 2 to 3 day rally and perhaps a change in trend on a move over 1.1832.