GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 12, 2015, 11:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 28 points as the dollar rallied to trade at 1.5185. Pound traders are dealing with comments from Bank of

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 28 points as the dollar rallied to trade at 1.5185. Pound traders are dealing with comments from Bank of England Carney as well as Brexit decision by David Cameron. The combination of a more dovish BoE and the formal start to Brexit talks may be game-changing for euro/sterling price action; the bar for strong UK data to have a positive impact on sterling is now likely to be higher. The UK leader’s demands included protection of EU free trade agreements for non-euroland nations, a reduction in EU ‘red tape’, an exemption from the EU’s aim of ‘ever closer union’ for Britain and a restriction of access to ‘in-work’ benefits for migrants from within the EU.

These demands were described by ‘EU exit’ campaigners as ‘disappointingly unambitious’ and the reaction amongst analysts suggests that they should prove relatively easy to achieve.

With economists estimating that a Brexit from the European Union could cause domestic GDP to shrink by up to 10%, the increased prospects that the UK will remain a member of the EU club after the long-promised ‘in / out’ referendum served to strengthen the Pound on the day.

The official numbers from the UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) were by no means universally positive, with the October Jobless Claims Change element showing at a higher than anticipated level. The Average Weekly Earnings data for September, which is a rolling quarterly number, showed at a marginally lower than expected level, however a surprise dip in the headline overall Unemployment Rate for the three months to the end of September more than compensated for these minor disappointments and the Pound rallied.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CNY	New Loans	514.0B	800.0B	1,050.0B
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		1.016M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572