Advertisement
Advertisement

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 27, 2015, 12:48 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD took a big hit today falling 63 points to 1.5041 but remained in the middle of its trading range. The strength

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

gbpusd friday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD took a big hit today falling 63 points to 1.5041 but remained in the middle of its trading range. The strength of the US dollar weighed heavily on its cross currencies. Meanwhile disappointing house prices and GDP pushed the pound down.

The second reading of UK economic growth is bang in line with an earlier estimate, showing growth of 0.5 per cent on the quarter, and 2.3 per cent on the year.

Overall, while the 0.5% q/q growth rate is nothing spectacular and is, on average, slower than seen during the recovery, the expenditure breakdown shows final domestic demand remains robust, supporting the case for rate hikes coming earlier than the market expects.

Annual house price growth slowed to a five-month low in November – despite the number of available homes on the market falling to a level not seen since the 1970s. Nationwide’s house price index showed house prices increased 0.1 per cent in November, meaning the annual growth rate fell from 3.9 per cent a month earlier to 3.7 per cent.

“This was the smallest increase since June and marked at least a temporary relapse in the recent firming trend in house prices,” Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS, said.

But it also said that the number of available homes had reportedly fallen to its lowest level since the 1970s, another sign Britain’s house building crisis is deepening.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

   

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

3.7%

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

0.1%

0.5%

0.5%

   

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

2.2%

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

gbpusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 30, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

-5.7%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

-4.0%

 

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

 

 

10.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

-1.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Nov)

 

55.0

56.2

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.0%

-2.3%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement