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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 3, 2015, 13:36 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 35 points to trade at 1.5383 as the US dollar rallied weighing on the UK currency and a report on

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

gbpusd tuesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 35 points to trade at 1.5383 as the US dollar rallied weighing on the UK currency and a report on construction was lower than the previous month. The Markit/CIPS construction purchasing managers’ index declined from 59.9 in September to 58.8 last month, in line with analysts’ expectations and comfortably above the 50 threshold that signals expansion. Housing activity growth eased from September’s 12-month high and the latest rise in civil engineering was the slowest since May, while commercial building work increased at the sharpest pace for eight months. “This is still a largely robust survey, despite the headline construction activity index edging back in October from a seven-month high in September,” said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight. “In fact, the headline activity index was still at a high level in October that is consistent with strong construction expansion.”

The report follows Monday’s impressive UK manufacturing PMI which rose from an upwardly revised 51.8 in September to a 16-month high of 55.5 last month, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 51.3 reading. The Bank of England is closely monitoring UK data ahead of Thursday’s policy decision. Analysts expect no change to interest rates or the asset purchase program amid low inflation and risks stemming from the slowdown in emerging markets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Culture Day

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Oct)

58.8

58.8

59.9

 

 

  NZD

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

 

 

-3.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.9%

-1.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   
                 

 

gbpusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

4.100M

 

  NZD

 

Unemployment Rate (Q3)

 

6.0%

5.9%

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-3.000B

-3.095B

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

 

50.8

50.5

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

 

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Oct)

 

55.2

55.2

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

180K

200K

 

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-41.10B

-48.30B

 

  USD

 

Services PMI (Oct)

 

54.6

54.4

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

3.376M

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

       

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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