Gold kicks off Wednesday with new U.S. inflation data, a sharp increase in Treasury real yields, and a U.S. market holiday all affecting the price action. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.3%, matching both August and September. Energy prices rose 0.7% during October after a 5.2% jump in September, while gasoline increased 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Inflation Still Sticky at the Core Level
The interpretation of all of these numbers is essentially an easing in monthly inflation on the headline side, but not a broad retreat in core pricing. For gold, this is not necessarily bullish. Slower headline inflation can reduce inflation-hedge demand and support expectations of a less restrictive Federal Reserve, yet the steady 0.3% core pace may keep policymakers cautious. The immediate concern for the market is the change in expected rates and real yields rather than just the CPI release.
The latest published daily par real yield curve is for November 10. The 5-year real yield rose to 2.56%, the 10-year to 2.78%, and the 30-year to 3.17%. Those figures were up from 2.35%, 2.63%, and 3.07%, respectively, on November 6. Higher real yields will, of course, increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
The yield curve also steepened in real terms over the long end, with the 30-year rate above the 5-year. These are derived from TIPS par yields, not actual tradable security prices. They do not establish an inverse relationship for gold necessarily, but a broad rise in inflation-adjusted yields is a significant problem for gold most of the time.
Veterans Day
Because Wednesday is Veterans Day in the United States, U.S. government offices and many domestic markets are closed. The CPI report itself carries a data limitation. BLS did not collect October 2025 survey data during the lapse in appropriations for the government, so it cannot publish 12-month percentage changes for October 2026 for the series.
Gold Price Forecast
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See all Gold forecastsGold’s next real test will be whether real yields stabilize after the post-CPI increase and whether investors interpret the report as easing inflation pressure or persistent core strength. A sustained decline in real yields, renewed official-sector purchases, or a worsening geopolitical outlook are what is needed to support gold. Higher real rates and stable risk appetite weigh against it.
Chart Outlook
From the technical side, it has been a fairly quiet session, but it is worth noting that the initial attempt to rally on Wednesday has been squashed as the sellers have returned. It still looks very much like a market that faces a lot of headwinds above, and therefore I still see it as a fade-the-rally scenario.