Gold Forecast – Expect New Highs After a Brief Pullback
- Gold is getting slammed after Friday’s robust jobs report.
- January non-farm payrolls showed 517,000 jobs created versus the expected 190,000. And unemployment fell to 3.4% from 3.5%.
- The bullish surprise implies the Fed will have to keep hiking rates beyond March.
Gold Big Picture Review
We believe gold formed a major bottom in 2022, and prices are in the first phase of a multi-wave advance towards $3000 in 2024. The next 4-year cycle should peak ahead of the 2024 Presidential elections.
The Presidential Election Cycle
The main reason gold spikes every 4-years is because of political uncertainty and social unrest. Each side fears the other winning. The greater the tension between parties – the higher gold will climb. It is anyone’s guess who the 2024 candidates will be, but it’s bound to be controversial.
Gold Short-Term Overbought
- Gold is short-term overbought, and a pullback below $1900 is conceivable.
- On the bullish side: progressive closes above $2000 would support a breakout and retest of $2080.
If gold keeps dropping from here, I’d expect prices to find support between $1820 and $1860.
Our analysis shows that a breakout above $2100 is possible by July or August 2023.
We believe gold is in the second inning of a nine-inning advance that should take prices to new all-time highs in 2024. Precious metals remain under-owned, and pullbacks could be mild to moderate in 2023. Expect a spike in 2024 ahead of the presidential elections.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.