Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued its decline to trade at 1167.70 down by almost $31 as traders moved to higher risk assets. Gold lost its
Gold continued its decline to trade at 1167.70 down by almost $31 as traders moved to higher risk assets. Gold lost its safety net as protection against inflation as global inflation remains tame. The drop in oil prices is keeping inflation down around the globe. Bullion erased its gains for the year yesterday after the government reported the U.S. grew at a faster pace than analysts forecast in the third quarter. A stronger economy is validating optimism that prompted the Federal Reserve to say this week that it will stop buying debt, further diminishing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge. Gold fell today after the Bank of Japan expanded stimulus, spurring gains in the dollar.
Global supplies are increasing as a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked supplies from shale formations in the U.S. Output expanded to 8.97 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 24, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s the most in data going back to Jan. 14, 1983.
Saudi Arabia produced an estimated 9.7 million barrels a day in September, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Plummeting oil prices are pushing some of the small-cap companies which flourished as part of the US shale energy boom close to their breaking point, while also prompting some well-known fund managers to aggressively buy energy stocks.
Concerns about slowing growth in Europe and a stronger dollar have helped push the price of light crude oil down about 25 per cent since June to about $82 a barrel, creeping closer to the average marginal cost of crude production of about $73 a barrel for US onshore work, according to a research note from Baird Equity Research.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
Household Spending |
1.5% |
1.9% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
JPY |
National Core CPI (Sep) |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (Oct) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
AUD |
PPI (QoQ) (Q3) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales |
-3.2% |
-1.0% |
1.5% |
||
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer |
-0.8% |
-0.3% |
0.9% |
||
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Oct) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.5% |
11.5% |
11.5% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
CAD |
GDP (MoM) (Aug) |
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI (Oct) |
|
60.0 |
60.5 |
|
|
|
USD |
UM Consumer Sent |
|
86.4 |
86.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing |
|
|
46.5 |
|
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals |
|
|
3.0% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
|
|
50.4 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing |
|
|
52.6 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing |
|
50.7 |
50.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing |
|
47.3 |
47.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing |
|
51.8 |
51.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
50.7 |
50.7 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
51.6 |
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Employment |
|
55.0 |
54.6 |
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
56.7 |
56.6 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Nov 03 10:00 Norway T-bill auction
Nov 04 10:15 Austria RAGB auction
Nov 04 10:30 Belgium 3 & 6M T-bill auction (Feb & Apr 2015)
Nov 04 10:30 UK Auctions 0.5% 2050 I/L Gilt
Nov 05 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Nov 06 09:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Nov 06 10:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Nov 06 11:00 Norway Announces details of bond auction on Nov 11
Nov 07 16:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Nov 12