Gold Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued its decline to trade at 1167.70 down by almost $31 as traders moved to higher risk assets. Gold lost its

Gold Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued its decline to trade at 1167.70 down by almost $31 as traders moved to higher risk assets. Gold lost its safety net as protection against inflation as global inflation remains tame. The drop in oil prices is keeping inflation down around the globe. Bullion erased its gains for the year yesterday after the government reported the U.S. grew at a faster pace than analysts forecast in the third quarter. A stronger economy is validating optimism that prompted the Federal Reserve to say this week that it will stop buying debt, further diminishing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge. Gold fell today after the Bank of Japan expanded stimulus, spurring gains in the dollar.

Global supplies are increasing as a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked supplies from shale formations in the U.S. Output expanded to 8.97 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 24, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s the most in data going back to Jan. 14, 1983.

Saudi Arabia produced an estimated 9.7 million barrels a day in September, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Plummeting oil prices are pushing some of the small-cap companies which flourished as part of the US shale energy boom close to their breaking point, while also prompting some well-known fund managers to aggressively buy energy stocks.

Concerns about slowing growth in Europe and a stronger dollar have helped push the price of light crude oil down about 25 per cent since June to about $82 a barrel, creeping closer to the average marginal cost of crude production of about $73 a barrel for US onshore work, according to a research note from Baird Equity Research.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending	1.5%	1.9%	-0.3%
JPY	National Core CPI (Sep)	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (Oct)	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
EUR	German Retail Sales	-3.2%	-1.0%	1.5%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	French Consumer	-0.8%	-0.3%	0.9%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate	11.5%	11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index		0.1%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	UM Consumer Sent		86.4	86.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing			46.5
AUD	Building Approvals			3.0%
CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI			54.0
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI			50.4
EUR	Spanish Manufacturing			52.6
EUR	Italian Manufacturing		50.7	50.7
EUR	French Manufacturing		47.3	47.3
EUR	German Manufacturing		51.8	51.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.7
GBP	Manufacturing PMI			51.6
USD	ISM Employment		55.0	54.6
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.6