Gold continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we continues to see a lot of “buy on the dip” trading.
You can see the gold did drift a little bit lower during the early hours on Monday, but I think sooner or later we do get a buying opportunity. After all, gold is in a large consolidation region, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before value hunters come back in. If that’s going to be the case, I like the idea of buying gold, perhaps near the $2,010 level.
If we turn around and rally from here, the 50 day EMA above is a significant resistance barrier. All things being equal, the $2050 level above is a significant target right along with the $2065 level and then the $2075 level.
If we can break above the $2,075 level, then it’s likely that the market could continue to go higher, much more like a buy and hold type of scenario. Underneath, the $2,000 level extends down to the $1,980 level as a huge range of support. We also have the 200-day EMA coming into that area, so I think it all ties together quite nicely as a major support level.
So that being said, this is a market that every time we bounce, I think you will see more people willing to stick their toe in the water. Keep in mind that central banks around the world will be cutting rates this year, and that generally helps gold. But we also have to keep in mind that the interest rate situation dropping isn’t the only thing that can drive gold higher, it’s also the geopolitical concerns in a world that right now has plenty of conflicts to worry about.
With all that being said and massive debt, gold makes a lot of sense from a longer term standpoint. And I do think eventually we break higher, but if we were to break below the 200 day EMA, I’d have to rethink the entire situation. However, that looks very unlikely at this point in time, and therefore it makes sense that we have plenty of buyers out there, including central banks for that matter.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.