Gold News: Bullish Price Prediction as Gold Nears $3409.43 Breakout With Fed Cut Bets Rising

Gold Holds Above Support as Market Eyes Breakout Levels

Spot gold is trading near a more-than-two-week high on Thursday, holding firm as traders await Friday’s release of the PCE inflation data. The market appears poised for an upside breakout above the August 8 top at $3409.43. If cleared, the next resistance levels are the July 23 high at $3439.04 and the June 16 top at $3451.53. A break through those two levels could open the door for a retest of the all-time high at $3500.20.

At 11:50 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3405.93, up $8.21 or +0.24%.

Despite the bullish momentum, the chart setup suggests potential for a near-term correction. Immediate support stands at the pivot level of $3353.58, followed by stronger support at the 50-day moving average of $3347.80. As long as price action holds above the 50-day MA, the market remains in “buy-the-dip” mode.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Climb as Williams, Powell Highlight Data Dependence

Market participants have priced in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 policy meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently flagged risks to the labor market as justification for a potential policy shift, and New York Fed President John Williams echoed this sentiment, noting the Fed needs to see more incoming data before acting.

The focus is now on Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Economists expect it to show a 2.6% year-over-year rise in July, matching the prior month. A surprise to the upside could boost the dollar and push yields higher, pressuring gold. Conversely, a softer print may reinforce dovish expectations and support the metal.

Trump Targets Fed Board, Markets Weigh Credibility Risk

President Donald Trump’s public attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook has intensified concerns over the central bank’s independence. Cook is suing to retain her seat following Trump’s Monday announcement on social media. The president claimed Cook made false statements in mortgage applications — an allegation that could fuel a legal standoff.

Trump stated Tuesday that he’ll “have a majority very shortly” on the Fed board, seeking to assert greater control over rate policy. Analysts warn that such political interference may damage confidence in the Fed’s neutrality and weigh further on the dollar.

Dollar Index Softens, Short-Term Yields Under Pressure

The dollar index slipped 0.23%, extending recent weakness, while two-year Treasury yields declined to their lowest since May 1. The 10-year yield held at 4.234%, and the 2-year edged up slightly to 3.625%. Short-dated U.S. yields remain under pressure, as expectations for a September rate cut increase and Trump’s actions inject uncertainty into Fed policymaking.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above $3347.80 Support

With gold trading above the 50-day MA at $3347.80, and rate cut odds solidly priced in, the bias remains bullish heading into Friday. A soft PCE print could accelerate a rally toward $3439.04 and $3451.53, with the all-time high at $3500.20 back in focus if those levels give way. A break below $3353.58 would suggest corrective pressure, but dips remain a buying opportunity above key support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.