Gold News: Fed Meeting Looms While Gold Struggles Below 50-Day MA at $3343.30

Gold Prices Hold Ground Below Key Technical Levels as Fed, Trade Talks Take Focus

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, stabilizing just above the critical support zone at $3310.48 for a second straight session. The market remains under pressure, however, with bullion trading below the 50-day moving average at $3343.30—now acting as fresh resistance. Technical bias remains bearish unless the yellow metal can push decisively above $3347.97.

At 12:36 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3320.90, up $6.445 or +0.19%.

Is the Trade Truce Already Priced In?

Initial optimism over the U.S.-EU tariff truce faded as investors reassessed its broader economic impact. While the Sunday deal avoids further escalation, most EU exports to the U.S. will still face a 15% tariff, dampening global growth expectations. The earlier deal between the UK and U.S. locking in a 10% rate also reinforced a reality that tariffs—and their inflationary effects—may be more permanent than temporary.

As safe-haven demand reemerged, gold regained footing, drawing support from concerns that trade headwinds between the U.S. and China are far from resolved. Top officials from both nations met for over five hours in Stockholm on Monday, seeking to extend their trade truce. Failure to finalize a broader agreement, however, could reinforce risk-off positioning and revive buying interest in gold.

Fed Decision Looms Large for Gold Prices Forecast

Attention is now on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, with markets anticipating no immediate rate change. Still, traders will be watching closely for language signaling the timing and magnitude of the next cut. Any dovish tilt from the Fed could pressure the U.S. dollar and provide near-term support to gold.

Yet, the dollar has been firming in recent sessions, and though not the primary influence today, continued strength in the greenback could weigh heavily on bullion prices if interest rate expectations shift.

Key Technical Levels Hold the Bearish Bias

Gold’s short-term outlook remains vulnerable. The critical trigger to the downside is $3309.79, the July 17 low. A clean break of that level with strong volume could accelerate selling toward the July 9 bottom at $3282.66. Upside resistance stands at $3343.30, with more meaningful strength only above the long-term pivot at $3347.97.

Market Forecast: Bearish Below $3347.97

As long as gold remains capped below the 50-day moving average and fails to reclaim $3347.97, downside pressure is expected to persist. A hawkish Fed tone or stronger U.S. dollar could deepen the retreat. Traders should watch $3309.79 closely—any breach could trigger another leg lower toward $3282.66.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.