Gold Price Drops Over 2% as Risk Appetite Rises and Key Support Levels Come Into Play
Spot gold (XAU/USD) is sharply lower on Tuesday, down more than 2% and trading at a three-week low, after breaking below critical technical levels and as traders rotate out of safe havens into risk assets on easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
The market has decisively crossed below the pivot at $4100.43, as well as a pair of swing bottoms at $4004.28 and $3944.43. With those floors now cleared, the gold market looks primed to test the next major zone between the 50% retracement at $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3782.23.
At 10:43 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3919.02, down $62.96 or -1.58%.
Gold Hit by Trade Optimism and Pre-Fed Profit-Taking
The selling pressure follows comments from President Trump suggesting a trade agreement with China is likely, alongside recent progress on bilateral talks. Risk sentiment has been buoyed further by a series of new trade and critical mineral agreements announced with Southeast Asian countries, pushing Asian equities higher and undercutting safe-haven demand.
“Hopes of avoiding a full-out trade war … is driving a rally for risk-related assets like shares. On the other side, it’s negatively impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold,” said ActivTrades’ Ricardo Evangelista.
The drop also comes just ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, where a rate cut is widely expected. While lower rates generally support non-yielding assets like gold, markets appear to be de-risking ahead of Chair Powell’s commentary. Traders will be watching closely for any forward guidance that could recalibrate expectations around the Fed’s policy path into year-end.
Technical Breakdown Exposes Deeper Support Levels
Technically, gold has shifted into bearish territory after violating the $4100.43 pivot and losing the swing bottoms at $4004.28 and $3944.43. This clears the way for a test of the $3846.50 level — a key 50% retracement of the most recent rally — with the 50-day moving average at $3782.23 just below. This area may attract dip buyers and force some short-covering, but the broader bias remains tilted lower unless bulls can defend this zone and reclaim the $3944.43 level.
Long-Term Outlook Holds, But Near-Term Correction in Play
Despite this week’s drawdown, the broader gold trend remains bullish, supported by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and a flight from fiat confidence.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsSpot prices are still up over 50% year-to-date after hitting an all-time high of $4381.44 on October 20.
However, momentum has clearly stalled short term. Citi recently cut its 0–3 month gold price forecast to $3800, while Capital Economics sees prices sliding to $3500 by end-2026 — suggesting room for further downside before the long-term bull case reasserts.
Gold Price Forecast: Sellers in Control Unless Bulls Defend $3782.23
For now, the path of least resistance is lower. If the $3846.50–$3782.23 zone fails to hold, sellers could press toward deeper retracements.
A bounce from that zone could spark a short-term 50% recovery of the sell-off, but bulls will need to reclaim this currently unknown level to shift the near-term structure.
The Fed’s rate statement and Powell’s press conference will likely decide whether gold finds a floor — or keeps sliding into November.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
