Gold News: Gold Price Tops $4,000 with Breakout Eyes on $4046.60 Resistance

Gold Price Breaks Above $4,000 as Dollar Weakens, Eyes Key $4046.60 Resistance

Spot gold pushed back above the $4,000/oz threshold on Thursday, supported by a pullback in the U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand driven by ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns. With bullion now within striking distance of the October 31 main top at $4046.60, traders are closely watching for a potential upside breakout that could open the door to higher retracement targets.

At 14:23 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3996.40, up $16.28 or +0.41%.

Dollar Slips, Treasury Yields Dip, Supporting Gold

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% after touching a four-month high earlier in the week, offering tailwinds for non-yielding assets like gold. U.S. Treasury yields also declined across the curve, with the 10-year yield down over 5 basis points to 4.106% and the 2-year yield sliding to 3.578%.

A sharp increase in October job cuts, as reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, added pressure to yields. Layoffs surged to 153,074 — the highest October print since 2003 — fueling market speculation of softening labor conditions.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to the dollar weakness and recent U.S. Supreme Court skepticism over Trump-era tariffs as near-term bullish factors for gold. “While near-term prices are likely to consolidate, we expect further Fed rate cuts to lift gold to $4,200 by year-end,” he noted.

Fed Outlook, Shutdown Drive Uncertainty

Despite a stronger-than-expected ADP employment print (+42,000 vs. 28,000 forecast), Fed funds futures have repriced rate cut odds slightly lower. Traders now assign a 63% probability to a December rate cut, down from over 90% a week ago. Still, the ongoing government shutdown — now the longest in U.S. history — and the lack of timely economic data due to the federal stalemate are complicating the policy outlook.

Key Chart Levels in Focus for Gold Traders

Technically, XAUUSD is testing critical resistance at the October 31 main top of $4046.60. A confirmed breakout above this level would validate the recent double bottom at $3928.68 and $3886.46 and put the 50%–61.8% retracement zone between $4133.95 and $4192.36 in play. First sellers may appear at that zone, but a decisive push through $4192.36 could trigger another leg higher.

On the downside, support is firming at the 50-day moving average of $3867.95 and a long-term pivot at $3846.50. As long as price action holds above these markers, the broader bullish trend remains intact.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Above $4046.60

With the dollar under pressure and Fed rate cut expectations still elevated, the gold outlook leans bullish in the near term. A clean breakout above $4046.60 could accelerate momentum toward $4133.95 and possibly $4192.36.

However, failure to clear resistance on first test may trigger consolidation. Bulls will want to see the 50-day MA at $3867.95 hold to maintain the uptrend.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.