Gold Price Hits Record High as Traders Position Ahead of Powell, PMIs
Spot gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally into a third session Tuesday, hitting a new all-time high as expectations for further U.S. rate cuts boosted bullion demand.
Prices are approaching a key technical swing target at $3879.64, and while the trend remains firmly bullish, further upside will likely depend on a fresh catalyst — potentially from Tuesday’s U.S. Flash PMI releases or Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks.
At 11:11 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3782.23, up $35.87 or +0.96%.
Fed policy expectations have shifted decisively dovish following last week’s 25-basis point rate cut, the Fed’s first this cycle. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran added to the rate cut narrative Monday, calling for aggressive easing and warning the central bank risks overtightening and damaging labor markets. While other Fed officials pushed back, the divergence has fueled speculation that more cuts are coming, particularly as inflation data softens.
Dovish Fed Signals and Global Demand Lift Gold to Record Highs
Gold broke to fresh record levels Tuesday, supported by expectations for lower U.S. interest rates and strong physical and institutional demand. CME FedWatch shows traders pricing in two additional 25-basis point cuts — one in October (90% probability) and one in December (73%). As a non-yielding asset, gold typically performs well in low-rate environments.
SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons on Monday — their highest in over three years — underscoring growing institutional positioning. Independent analyst Ross Norman noted rising demand from both institutions and Indian buyers.
Despite record local prices, physical gold premiums in India hit a 10-month high ahead of the festive season, signaling resilient demand. Norman also flagged Chinese buying and ETF flows as short-term factors that could sustain the rally.
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See all Gold forecastsYields Retreat as Fed Officials Strike Contrasting Tones
U.S. Treasury yields slipped ahead of Powell’s remarks. The 10-year yield fell to 4.129%, while the 2-year hovered at 3.597%. With the Fed’s dovish turn in focus, traders are watching closely to see whether Powell reinforces Miran’s call for deeper easing or maintains a more cautious stance. Powell is expected to reiterate the need for patience, though any deviation could trigger sharp dollar and rate moves.
Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Outlook Holds Toward $3879.64 Target
Technically, gold remains bullish with the next swing resistance at $3879.64. A closing price reversal top would be the first sign of selling or profit-taking. Minor support lies at $3627.96 and $3612.83, with the main trend intact above the 50-day moving average at $3453.22.
The fundamental case for gold remains strong, with dovish Fed expectations, softening yields, and robust global demand. A dovish Powell or weaker PMI data could trigger the next leg higher. For now, dips remain buyable while support levels hold, and a breakout above $3879.64 would open the door to fresh upside.
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